A foolish crusade Following in Lord Roberts's footsteps would be a fatal mistake for the West Peter Oborne September 23, 2001 Tony Blair is famously fond of telling Muslim audiences that he reads the Koran. To others, he sings different tunes. When interviewed by the Daily Telegraph before the election, he claimed that he was greatly enjoying the memoirs of Field Marshal Lord Roberts, the greatest and most belligerent of nineteenth-century imperialists, whose most noteworthy achievement was the march on Kandahar to relieve Lt General James Primrose in 1879. It took Roberts 22 days to move his army 313 miles across Afghanistan's hostile terrain. At the end of it, he obliterated the enemy. Roberts is the only general to have emerged with flying colours from an expedition into Afghanistan in the last 200 years. One can only hope that his example hasn't given the Prime Minister the wrong idea. Some of the simple certainties, not to mention the underlying attitudes, of Roberts's campaign have been at large over the last 10 days. President Bush's call for a crusade and his demand to get bin Laden 'dead or alive' would have chimed with the jingoism of the Victorian empire. It is hard to tell whether the President really means what he says, or what Tony Blair privately thinks. But judging from their public statements, the strategy of these two men looks 100 per cent wrong. The kind of retribution they are talking about seems self-defeating and mad. The British, of all people, should know that talk of defeating terrorism through salutary punishment is hopeless. Our bitter experience with the IRA shows that. The IRA survived and flourished because it enjoyed the active or tacit support of the Catholic population in Northern Ireland, the sympathy of the southern Irish state and financial backing from the greater Irish diaspora. Reprisals, however rational or justified by IRA barbarity, merely had the effect of making matters worse. Just as the IRA enjoyed the support of the wider Irish community, so bin Laden's organisation enjoys support in the wider Muslim world. That is because, whether we like it or not, both organisations are using a genuine grievance. Peace in Ulster has only become possible now that Britain has started to address nationalist concerns. Anyone who thinks that Arab terrorism can be defeated until the Palestine situation is resolved is dreaming. The thought of the West taking reprisals against bin Laden without demanding major concessions from Israel makes the blood run cold. Clumsy reprisals will simply inflame Muslim opinion and that is bin Laden's objective. It is clear that his real aim is not the destruction of America but the eviction of the pro-Western regimes in Saudi Arabia and neighbouring countries. It is not difficult to envisage a series of popular uprisings sweeping aside all moderate Muslim governments. Any attempt by the West to save, say, Saudi Arabia, might be greeted by terrorist reprisals that would make the World Trade Centre atrocity look like an aperitif. The consequences of such a turn of events are far worse than oil at $100 a barrel and economic depression. A new Middle East power block would have emerged, allying twenty-first century technology with a medieval mind-set. It would have the wealth to buy nuclear weapons and delivery systems to go with them. A new Cold War would have started. But this time, the men with their fingers on the button would have a proven disregard for human life, including their own. This is one possible future if George Bush and Tony Blair miscalculate over the next days and weeks. In any case, action against Afghanistan and other Muslim powers, while appeasing public sentiment in America, would achieve nothing. The great point about last week's atrocities is that they were inside jobs. The same will apply in the future. Many of the hijackers were educated in the West. If any country can be accused of abetting terrorism it is Britain, where terrorists can use our asylum laws to obtain entry and resist extradition through our human rights legislation. We do not guard our borders effectively and it is inconceivable that fresh terrorists will not make use of this weakness. It is criminally negligent of the Government to allow such a situation to persist. So Blair and Bush seem to have got it the wrong way round. Abroad, they are targeting Afghans and others who present no threat. At home, they are failing to take the tough steps that would protect their citizens from an insidious deadly menace. This war, if it is a war, is a conflict between Old and New Testament. It is between those who value human life and those who do not. If the West goes down the way of revenge, as Bush especially seems ready to do, than it will lose. Both the President and the Prime Minister affect to be Christians. They might care to contemplate, before they order troops into action, how Christ would have reacted. We have heard plenty of talk about retribution. It would now be fine to hear both men say that the West does not believe in taking innocent lives. That is what the terrorists did on 11 September. If we respond in the same way, they will have won. Source: http://www.observer.co.uk/waronterrorism/story/0,1373,556651,00.html